Swine Flu has Unexpected Origin

Influenza Pandemic has Taken Surprising Turns

Jul 20, 2009 Rupert Taylor

Accepted theory suggests the current flu outbreak should have started elsewhere as a different virus.

“Experts agree that future influenza pandemics are inevitable, but the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted. That’s a quote from “The Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector,” which was published in December 2006.

Proteins Used in Flu-naming Protocols

The Health Canada plan explains that, “In nature there are 16 different haemaglutinins and nine different neuraminidases, which are two important surface glycoproteins of the influenza A virus. Influenza virus subtypes are named according to these 'H' and 'N' proteins. Although all 16 of the H types can infect birds, to date only H1, H2 and H3 have been associated with widespread human disease and H5, H7, and H9 have demonstrated the ability to cause human disease.”

Birds are the natural hosts for influenza viruses and, from time to time, people working closely with them become infected with a new virus. Occasionally, this virus will spread from human to human triggering the start of a pandemic.

Because of this, public health officials keep a close watch on likely incubation sites for new flu viruses. When an outbreak is identified stringent containment activities take place to try to keep the flu strain confined to a small, local area.

Past Pandemics Give Clues to Future Outbreaks

Influenza pandemics occur three to four times a century. The 20th century saw three outbreaks described in detail at globalsecurity.org:

The so-called Spanish flu of 1918-19 that killed between 20 and 50 million people worldwide;
The Asian flu during 1957–1958 was much milder with a death toll of around two million; and,
The Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 took the lives of about one million.

In January 1976, there was an outbreak of H1N1 swine flu among soldiers at Fort Dix, New Jersey. This was contained to a tiny number and did not spread to the wider population.

In May 1977, the H1N1 virus popped up again in northern China and spread around the world quickly. This strain was quite mild and almost the only people attacked were those under 25 years of age.

Birds Seen as Likely Pandemic Source

The major pandemics of the 20th century had an avian origin, so it’s not surprising that public health officials expected the next wave of influenza to come from the same source.

There was plenty of evidence that this was going to be the case.

Health Canada’s pandemic plan explains that “Direct transmission of avian H5N1 influenza from chicken to humans was demonstrated during the 1997 Hong Kong ‘bird flu’ incident. The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in multiple countries in Asia since 2003 has been associated with sporadic human cases and a relatively high mortality rate.”

These viruses all started in birds and most of them began in Southeast Asia. It made sense for health officials to focus their resources in that region and on that source.

Mexico a Surprising Breeding Ground for Influenza

Writing in The Globe and Mail, Caroline Alphonso and Gloria Galloway report that the current pandemic blindsided authorities. In their article “Swine Flu Targets Youth, Figure Reveal,” (July 18, 2009) the writers stress that, “The pandemic virus, which slipped into a place where no one was looking for it, in a form that no one expected and swept the globe with unprecedented speed, has challenged all assumptions on what a pandemic would look like...”

In the article they quote Dr. Donald Low, chief microbiologist at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital as saying: “This thing has not followed any of the rules. It obviously didn’t read the pandemic plan that we had formulated,”

In fact, "The Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector" went so far as to predict, “The probability of a new strain emerging in North America is thought to be relatively low.”

The copyright of the article Swine Flu has Unexpected Origin in General Medicine is owned by Rupert Taylor. Permission to republish Swine Flu has Unexpected Origin in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

Trying to Cope with Spanish Flu in 1918.