Is Swine Flu Really a Major Danger?
A Rational Look at the Risks, Prevention and Treatment of H1N1
Apr 28, 2009
The current swine flu outbreak is a type of influenza A virus, specifically H1N1. But what makes it more dangerous than the yearly flu epidemic, or is that just exaggeration from the media?
Many people have compared swine flu to avian influenza and SARS, saying that since neither one proved to be a global problem in the end, swine flu is going to be just similar hype. However, we cannot know for sure.
Swine flu is a bigger risk than SARS, because SARS is only infectious after the symptoms have appeared, which is most likely what prevented a major epidemic. Avian influenza or the bird flu, on the other hand, was never infectious between humans, at least on a major scale.
What Makes Swine Flu Potentially so Dangerous?
The reason why swine flu is a risk is that influenza is a highly contagious illness. H1N1 influenza is not nearly as deadly as, say, Ebola or other hemorrhaging fevers, but if a pandemic happened, in the worst case up to 1/3 of the population could get sick. In that case even a 5% risk of dying from the illness could mean death of millions.
What may make swine flu more dangerous than a normal influenza season is that like the Spanish flu of 1918, it has killed mostly healthy young people. Usually influenza is only dangerous for the old and sick. This suggests that like with the Spanish Flu, the potentially deadly part could be the immune reaction the body mounts against the virus. As such young people with healthier immune systems may actually be more at risk than the old and frail.
Nonetheless, there is currently no reason to panic. It is possible that the flu may spread into a pandemic but unless that happens, you're much more likely to die in a car accident or by slipping and falling in your home.
On the other hand, it is also well possible there will be no major epidemic and in that case fear and panic is likely to do more damage than the actual infection.
How to Prevent and Treat Swine Flu
Influenza vaccinations do not offer protection against the swine flu, though they may slightly lessen its severity. This H1N1 strain is resistant to the old antiviral drugs amantadine and rimantadine, but the same goes for most new influenza strains. Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) still work, though they need to be taken early in the course of the illness, and there is no guarantee they will continue being effective.
Thorough hand washing is extremely effective in prevention the spread of the common cold. It is less effective against influenza, which spreads as an aerosol, but still a very good idea. From a medical viewpoint masks offer a sensible option, but they are also more likely to spread unnecessary panic, hysteria and confusion. One cannot get the swine flu from eating pork.
There are many herbs and supplements with proven efficacy in the prevention and/or treatment of influenza, such as vitamin D, N-acetylcysteine, elderberry, licorice root, ginseng, Siberian ginseng/eleuthero, whey protein and some with conflicting evidence for their efficacy, like vitamin C, echinacea and zinc.
The problem is that most of herbs used in flu prevention are immunostimulants and this H1N1 influenza strain may be more deadly to those with healthy, robust immune systems. If you do get sick with the swine flu, there is a possibility that the immunostimulant herbs could actually worsen the outcome.
See Also
Differences between Common Colds and the Flu
Flu Shot: Benefits, Risks and Alternatives
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